PROP 8 AFTERMATH PART 1- As predicted: Polls Were Wrong. L.A. County and Latino Voters in San Joaquin Valley Pushed Prop. 8 to Victory
November 5, 2008 by Johnny California
Filed under Ballot Propositions
Update 11/12: Yes, we know that Nate Silver/fivethirtyeight.com has a different take on the election, that it turned on age rather than race. We still stand by our contention that regardless of age or race, had the No-On-8 campaign reached out to the Central Valley along with other parts of LA County, that may have been enough to put them over the top.
As we predicted, last Friday’s Field Poll showing a defeat of Prop.8 was not to be trusted, as we discussed in that post and in our post about the San Joaquin Valley, we believe that the African-American Obama vote in L.A. county and the Latino vote in the San Joaquin valley will ultimately prove to be the deciding factors in Prop. 8.
For example, Prop. 8 narrowly won L.A. County with 1,317,125 vote “YES” (50%). But 1,845,726 (69.33%) votes went for Obama vote for Obama (69%). This is completely out of line with The Field Poll’s finding that 73% of Obama voters would defeat Prop. 8. If the poll were accurate, then L.A. County should have easily defeated Prop. 8.
Also, take these three San Joaquin Valley counties as a snapshot::Merced, Stanisalus and San Joaquin are all heavily Latino — all three went for Obama wiht a total of 180,000 votes, but all three also overwhelmingly passed Prop 8. with a total of 230,422. In Fresno County which was a statistical tie at 49% for Obama and McCain, 68% (131,598) voted “YES.” This pattern was repeated all over the San Joaquin Valley counties with heavy Latino populations.
WHAt?!?!! So this means im leaving in a place where there’s more homophobic people than i thought it would be??!?!i hate this place!!!!
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It took a long time to get civil rights for African-Americans. It took a fight to legalize interracial marriage. Gay marriage rights will happen eventually. I think the argument that prop 8 is more than an amendment because it conflicts with the fundamental right to equality written into the Constitution is a good one. And it will go before the same court that found civil unions were “separate, but not equal,” so don’t give up hope. God bless the lawyer that came up with that argument.
I don’t think homophobia is the main problem. A lot of people, it seems, just have to feel that they are better than the “other” guy (or gal). Hence, the “back of the bus” or “separate but (yeah right) equal” mentality. When people realize that the rights of one depend upon the rights of all, we will truly have a democracy. Until then, there will always be a group being denied their rights. I wish the African-Americans who voted for prop 8 could see that. I also wonder what group will be next.
Finally, I think that some people would have voted against prop 8 but for their religious leaders telling them they would go to Hell if they did. How sad. God belongs to all of us–gay and straight. If a human parent wouldn’t reject his or her child for being gay, why would God? Is a human parent more divine than God? More loving? How about an animal parent? More divine than God?
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Randy Reply:
November 17th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
It has nothing to do with being better. What it does have to do with is children. The government sets up a tax incentive, etc, for married couples because it promotes healthy children. Studies show that healthy children come from families with both mother and father. Society is benefited by healthy children. It has nothing to do with Love between people. I can’t believe this isn’t bought up more. Yes, some married couples don’t have children. But the laws are setup as best as they can be. My own feeling is, if you want to have gays marry, then just abolish legal marriage for everyone and be done with it. Then we can all have legal civil unions and leave marriage for the churches. Someday we’ll return to a conventional family structure when we realize what a mess we’ve made. Just like socialism, we’re bound to make the same mistakes over again, it seems.
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Random Hero Reply:
May 8th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
But would you say that it is better for children to stay in an orphanage until they are 18 with no parents? Or would you say its better for them to at least have parents, whether they be the same sex or not, to teach them morals? If the children stay in an orphanage they will end up being pissed off at the world and end up in prison.
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Tulare and Kern Counties (populated almost entirely by Latinos and Bible-thumpers) voted 75% in favor of Prop 8. As much as the rest of the Valley counties voted in favor of Prop 8, the rate is much higher there.
It’s the backwater rural communities that should be blamed for Proposition 8, not blacks or LA County.
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Randy, the studies to which you are referring show that healthy children come from families with TWO parents–as more children in single-parent households live in poverty. In other words, studies show that TWO gay parents are better than one single straight one. Gays have families too, so the logic of your argument points out that gays should be allowed to marry so their children will be healthier as well. Very true.
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San juaquin valley residents mostly think gay people are sick and have serious mental issues they should get some therapy for there sickness and quit trying to make homosexuality normal!
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Guinness Reply:
August 25th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Yeah, I’m from Stockton. My parents were the only people who had a “No On Prop 8″ sign outside of our house. Hopefully in 2012, we can change the minds of the opposition!
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