We’re putting together or own analysis, but here’s the good  links you could want for now:

Calitics

San Francisco Chronicle

Sac Bee

Before you go all tough-on-crime crazy, consider this:  California prisons are operating at 200% capacity.  The court ordered most prisons to operate at somewhere between 125% and 145% of capacity.  It’s still gonna be pretty suqished in there.

Here’s an excerpt from the ruling that succinctly explains the problem:

Evidence offered at trial was overwhelmingly to the effect that overcrowding is the primary cause of the unconstitutional conditions that have been found to exist in the California prisons. There is, for example, uncontroverted evidence that, because of overcrowding, there are not enough clinical facilities or resources to accommodate inmates with medical or mental health needs at the level of care they require. There is also uncontroverted evidence that, because of overcrowding, there are not enough clinical or custodial personnel to ensure that inmates with medical or mental health needs are receiving appropriate treatment, are taking the medications that they need to take, are being escorted to their medical appointments in a timely manner, and are having their medical information recorded and filed properly. Additionally, as the Governor has stated, and as the California appellate court has found, overcrowded conditions – the use of triple bunks in gymnasiums and other areas not intended to be used for housing, for example – have “substantially increased the risk of the transmission of infectious illnesses among inmates and prison staff.”

As anyone who does any work in the California prisons will tell you, a tuberculosis outbreak is at the top of everyone’s mind.  A TB test is required for pretty much anyone who sets foot in there — especially because TB won’t stop at the prison walls.   TB is a much bigger risk to public safety than the early release of a guy caught with a few pounds of weed in his trunk one too many times.

And by the way, that’s exactly who is going to be set free. Inmates slated for release are non-violent offenders, people almost at the end of their sentences, the sick, the elderly.

The final order that details how many prisoners will go free will come after a final hearing.  According to multiple news outlets, the Schwarzenegger administration will appeal directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.   That’s kind of funny considering that Gov. Schwarzenegger used to support the early release of non-violent offenders.  Check out the Real Cost of Prisons blog for more on that.

Here’s the full text of the tentative ruling:

Tentative Ruling

31 of California’s 58 counties report double digit unemployment, the population centers where most of the labor force reside are already past 10%, and the state’s exurban and rural areas are in the worst shape of all.  With more layoffs to come, we are weeks away from a statewide average over 10%.

The Jobless Rate in Southern California

Let’s start with Southern California.  Los Angeles County is only at 9.5%, but that’s only because L.A. County’s relatively recession-proof cities  like Beverly Hills (6.6%), Calabassas (4.1%), Manhattan Beach (3.3%) among others keep it below 10%.  The actual city of Los Angeles itself, with a labor force of almost 2 million, is at 10.5% unemployment.  Long Beach, with a workforce of 240,000 is also at 10.5%.

And in an  irony of all ironies, LA County’s city of of Commerce boasts the county’s highest jobless rate at 17.5%.  with the City of Industry not much better at 15.9%.  The good news is that the county has the city of Vernon, the one city in the state with 0% unemployment, of course they have an unfair advantage since they have zero people in their labor force.

As for the rest of the  Southern California Megalopolis — Riverside County has crossed the double digit threshold, they’re at a 10.5% jobless rate and they’re about to have some company — San Bernardino County comes in at  9.7% and  Ventura is at 8.0%.

Orange County looks like its better off at 6.5%, but that’s actually high considering that 21 of the county’s 40 cities have an average household income above $75,000/year; of those 21, 9 are above $100,000/year and 15 above $90,000/year.  More telling is looking where OC’s largest concentrated labor force resides — Santa Ana where the jobless rate clocks in at 10.4%.  Among the Orange County unemployed are 200 recently laid off  public assistance workers who process claims for things like food stamps and other public assistance.  Interesting.

The Exurbs and Rural Areas

Things are much worse  in the Central Valley, the  cities and their surrounding suburbs (known as “Metropolitan Statistical Areas”) paint a grim picture. The Fresno MSA is at 13.2%, Merced MSA at 15.5% , and Bakersfield MSA at 11.2%.

But the grimmest picture comes from Imperial County along the Mexican border, where 22.6% of the labor force are not working. Almost 1 in 4 people are jobless.  How bad is that?  Well…during the Great Depression unemployment in the United States was at 25%.

The Bright Spot

The good news is that this too shall pass.  We’re all in this together.   This is something that all Californians are feeling…unless of course you live in the San Francisco Bay Area, where as usual, they’re living in an alternate reality.    Marin, San Mateo and San Francisco Counties all boast jobless rates below 7%, Marin has the state’s lowest at 5.4%   Which makes sense, since you can’t afford to live there unless you have a job.

State Controller John Chiang announced today that beginning February 1st a number of tax refunds, welfare payments, college aid, aid to for the disabled, and a whole bunch of other payments will be delayed by at least 30 days. Here’s why (from Controller Chiang’s press release):

With no signs of an economic recovery in sight, it is critical that the Governor and the Legislature enact a sound budget solution that provides much-needed cash by February 1. If not, the State will be $346 million in the red at the end of February, and $5.2 billion in the red in April.

In order to preserve cash for education, debt service and other payments that are deemed by the State Constitution, federal law or court rulings as having first claim to available General Fund cash, the Controller announced he will begin delaying, for 30 days, payments to all other programs that are funded out of the State’s depleted General Fund.

Those payments that will be delayed include thousands of payments to businesses for services and products they provide to the State; to assistance for more than a million aged, blind and disabled Californians that goes to pay their rent, utilities, or put food on their tables; to State agencies that use the payments to fund critical public services, ranging from public safety to health and welfare.

If the budget crisis is not resolved by March 1, then the state may issue IOUs — which may not be any better, especially if banks refuse to accept them.

Read Controller Chiang’s entire statement here.

For a detailed list of all delayed payments by February 1st, click here.

Our question is this — if this isn’t resolved by April 15th, why should we be required to file our state taxes by then?

The speech itself was awful.  It was like watching a the father-of-the-bride give a wedding toast when he and everyone else in the room knows the wedding is doomed.   The first 25% was just thanking other state officials and their staffs.  The last part was a (deserved) thank you to the state’s firefighters for their handling of last year’s wildfires. The middle part was nothing but a bunch of fluff about solving the budget crisis.  The only specific proposal he laid out was a plan to dock the every legislator’s paycheck for each day they are overdue on passing a budget.  nobody seemed to like this idea very much.

Here’s a link to the video of the speech

Here’s the text of the speech as delivered:

GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGER:   Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you very much, Lieutenant Governor Garamendi, for the nice introduction. Chief Justice George, President Pro-tem Steinberg, Speaker Bass, Senate Republican Leader Cogdill, Assembly Republican Leader Villines, members of the legislature, ladies and gentlemen.

First of all, I want to congratulate the four that have been responsible for creating, really, the Martin Luther King holiday. So I want to say thank you because Martin Luther King has been a great hero who has given his life for justice and for equality and has been a great inspiration not only to Americans but to people all over the world. So congratulations to all of them. Let’s give them a hand, again, for the great work that they have done. (Applause)

I also want to take this opportunity to just thank a few people, because all this hard work is not done just by me or the Horseshoe, there are a lot of people involved. First of all I want to say thank you very much to my wife and the First Lady of California for her extraordinary work on the Women’s Conference or on promoting earned income tax credit or the volunteers, California Volunteers, or the Hall of Fame or the California Museum and the list goes on and on and on. Let’s give her a great hand for the great work that she is doing. (Applause)

Then I also want to take this opportunity to say thank you to my staff that has been working so tirelessly, not only during the day but sometimes at night and on the weekends and so on and especially also my Chief of Staff Susan Kennedy. Thank you very much for all the great work that all of you are doing. Thank you. (Applause)

And I also want to say thank you to the staffs of the legislature, because we are not by ourselves down there; you guys, you have terrific staff, hardworking staff that come down there and work with us also again many hours during days, nights and weekends, so we want to say thank you also to them for all of that. (Applause)

Now, we meet in times of great hope for our nation, although we hear the drumbeat of news about bailouts, bankruptcies and Ponzi schemes, the nation with great anticipation is also awaiting the inauguration of a new president. Our nation should be proud of President-elect Obama’s election and what it says to the world about American openness and renewal.
You know, President Reagan used to tell about a letter that he got from a man who said that you can go and live in Turkey but you can’t become a Turk. You can go and live in Japan but you can’t become Japanese. And he went through various different countries like that but the man said anyone from any corner of the world can come to America and become an American. (Applause)

I know that we know that any American child now also, no matter what corner of the world his father or mother comes from, can even become president of the United States. What a wonderful national story for us. This nation rightfully feels the hope of change.
Californians, of course, desire change here in their own state as well. Yet they have doubts, if that is possible, because for months in the face of a crisis we have been unable to reach agreement on the largest budget deficit in our history. We are in our third special session and we have declared a fiscal emergency and every day that goes by makes the budget problem that much harder to solve.

As a result of all of this, California, the eighth largest economy in the world, faces insolvency within weeks. The legislature is currently in the midst of serious and good faith negotiations to solve this crisis, negotiations that are being conducted in the knowledge that we have no alternative but to find agreement.

The importance of the negotiations’ success goes far beyond the economic and human impact. People are asking if California is governable. They wonder about the need of a Constitutional convention. They don’t understand how we could have let political dysfunction paralyze our state for so long. In recent years they have seen more gridlock in Sacramento than on our roads, if that is possible.

I will not give the traditional state of the state address here today because the reality is that our state is incapacitated until we solve the budget crisis. The truth is that California is in a state of emergency.

Addressing this emergency is the first and most important and greatest thing that we must do for the people of California. The $42 billion deficit is a rock upon our chest and we cannot breathe until we get it off. It doesn’t make any sense for me to talk here today and stand in front of you and talk about education or infrastructure or water or health care reform and all of those things, when we have this huge budget deficit. I will talk about my vision for all of those things and much more as soon as we get the budget done. So no, I did not come here to deliver the normal list of accomplishments and proposals. I came just simply to encourage this body to continue the hard work that you are doing behind closed doors. I know we’re going to get it done.

There is a context, of course and a history to the negotiations that are underway. It is not that California is ungovernable; it is that for too long we have been split by ideology. Conan’s sword could not have cleaved our political system in two as cleanly as our own political parties have done. Over time ours has become a system where rigid ideology has been rewarded and pragmatic compromise has been punished. And where has this led us? I think you would agree that in recent years California’s legislature has been engaged sometimes in civil war. Meanwhile, the needs of the people became secondary. Our citizens do not believe that we in government are in touch with their needs.

Now, these needs are not unreasonable, may I remind you. At the end of the day most people do not require a great deal from their government. They expect just simply the fundamentals. They want to live in safety, they want good education for their children, they want jobs, they want to breathe clean air, they want water when they turn on the faucet, they want electricity when they turn on the switch and they want those things delivered efficiently and economically.
One of the reasonable expectations that the public has of government is that it will produce a sound and balanced budget. That is what the legislative leaders are struggling to do right now. There is no course left for us but this; to work together, to sacrifice together and to think of the common good and not our individual good.

Now, of course no one wants to take money from our gang fighting programs or from Medi Cal or from education. Of course not.  No one wants to pay more taxes or fees. But each of us has to give up something, because our country is in an economic crisis and our state simply doesn’t have the money.

In December we even had to suspend funding that affects 2,000 plus infrastructure projects that were already underway. So now the bulldozers are silent. The nail guns are still.  The cement trucks are parked. This disruption has stopped work on levees and housing and schools and roads, on everything. It has thrown thousands and thousands of people out of work at a time when our unemployment rate is rising and when people really need the jobs. How could we have let something like this happen?

I know that everyone in this room wants to hear again the sound of construction. No one wants unemployment checks replacing paychecks. So I’m encouraged that meaningful negotiations are underway.  And as difficult as the budget will be, good things can come out of it. Because in spite of the budget crisis, when we have worked together in the past, we have passed measures, extraordinary measures that move the state and even the country forward.

When a budget agreement is reached, when some of the raw emotions have passed, I will send the legislators the package of legislative goals and proposals that the Governor traditionally sends. These proposals are sitting on my desk right now.

And let me tell you, I have big plans for this state. They include action on the economy, on water, the environment, education and healthcare reform, government efficiency and reform, job creation and the list goes on and on.

But our first order of business is to solve the budget crisis. And talking about budget, I have a great idea going forward. As you know, for the last 20 years of budgeting only four budgets have been on time. So if you don’t mind, let me just make a little suggestion. We should make a commitment that the legislators and the Governor too, lose per diem expenses and our paychecks for every day that the budget goes past the constitutional deadline which is June 15th. I mean, you have to admit this is a brilliant idea and look at the happy faces I see now. I love that.
I mean, if you call a taxi and the taxi doesn’t show up, you don’t have to pay the driver.  So if the people’s work doesn’t get done, I think the people’s representatives shouldn’t get paid either. That is common sense in the real world.

And, of course, I will send you some other reforms as well. I thought that this line would get a great applause in this hall but I understand why not.

Let me close by saying something about the fires of 2008. At one point I got a phone call that we had 875 wildfires burning all at the same time. I said to myself, how could we deal with this?  The next morning I got another phone call:  Governor, there are now 2014 fires burning all at the same time, the largest number on record. Imagine, 2000 plus fires. What a huge challenge. But every one of those fires was put out. And you know why?  Because we have the best trained and the most selfless and the toughest firefighters in the nation. Let’s give them a big hand. (Applause)

Thirteen of whom lost their lives. They gave their lives for this state. Think about that. They gave their lives for this state.

Ladies and gentlemen, the courageous example of those firefighters should not be lost in us. In our own way we too must show courage in serving the public.

Ladies and gentlemen, let this be the year of political courage. Let us be courageous for the people. Let us be courageous for the common good of California. Let us resolve the budget crisis so that we can get on with the people’s work.

Thank you very much. Thank you.  (Applause)

Here’s the latest example:  Last week,the Governor  issued an Executive Order closing state offices every other Friday with the workers going on unpaid “furlough” for those two days.   Unfortunately for the Governor,  this Executive Order does not apply to state offices run by other state elected officials.  The SacBee reports:

Schwarzenegger’s executive order — which applies to most state workers — cannot be mandated on the offices of California’s other statewide elected officials.

This issue will likely be added to the Governor’s “State of the State” address which he delivers this Thursday.  It’s going to be a bummer. The San Jose Mercury News reports:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be hard-pressed to find good news for his State of the State address on Thursday as he continues his search for a budget compromise with state lawmakers before California runs out of cash in a few weeks.The Republican governor will focus his annual speech on the state’s dismal revenue outlook amid a deepening national recession. He also is likely to press for a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, as he has done for months.

On Monday, he was meeting with legislative leaders from both parties after vetoing an $18 billion Democratic budget proposal last week.

“We are starting again. As the governor said, we are turning the page on negotiations this week with all four legislative leaders at the table,” Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear said.

California is expected to run out of cash in February, which would force the state to issue IOUs to vendors for only the second time since the Great Depression. It last gave IOUs during the recession of the early 1990s.

Running out of money also means California might have to delay checks to taxpayers owed refunds or issue them IOUs.

Schwarzenegger has described the current situation as “financial Armageddon.” Nevertheless, his pleas have failed to coax majority Democrats and, most notably, members of his own party out of their ideological corners.